Valuation methods in light of business cycles / Naima ECHALHI / 2020

Titre : Valuation methods in light of business cycles Type de document : Mémoire Auteurs : Naima ECHALHI, Auteur Année de publication : 2020 Importance : 36 p. Note générale : Pour accéder aux fichiers PDF, merci de vous identifier sur le catalogue avec votre compte Office 365 via le bouton CONNEXION en haut de page. Langues : Anglais (eng) Mots-clés : Management CYCLE ECONOMIQUE ; FINANCE D'ENTREPRISE ; INVESTISSEMENT ; EVALUATION D'UNE ENTREPRISE Résumé : The main question that an investor poses is whether to buy or sell the shares of a company. Should she keep a long position or short her securities? The key metric, and the most objective one, that she can rely on is the entreprise value. However, for the aim of having an accurate entreprise value, professionals need to make correct projections of Earnings Before Interests and Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization (EBITDA) in a DCF model. This paper focuses on this crucial indicator and analyzes how impactful the business cycles can be on its forecast. A case study based on two scenarios was conducted, wherein data since 1998 of Companie Générale des Etablissements Michelin for three regions North America (mainly USA), Europe and Asia where the company operates were examined with the purpose to capture the impact that business cycle phases have on the growth of the firm’s EBITDA. The paper demonstrates how it is important to consider in a valuation model the fact that a successful forecast of any metric is not only correlated with the choice of obvious parameters like the infinity growth rate or the volatility photographed by Beta, but also by looking upon the implicit ones (e.g., the elasticity to business cycles’ expansions and contractions). Especially, if the metric itself is the edge of a model that is basically structured as a waterfall process. Programme : PGE-Rouen Spécialisation : Finance d’Entreprise - Corporate Finance Permalink : https://cataloguelibrary.neoma-bs.fr/index.php?lvl=notice_display&id=531012